Russia is not Yugoslavia, Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya, Syria, Somalia, Congo, and so on, which could simply be flattened with impunity and without risk to one's own life, and where the wealthy could and can still earn good money from arms spending, market takeovers and the theft of raw materials. Napoleon and Germany's megalomaniacs, Kaiser Wilhelm and Hitler and their accomplices, already had to learn the lesson that Russia is not so easy to subjugate and plunder: even then it was a learning process that the little people, not only in Russia, had to pay for with great suffering. Ukraine could provoke an escalation to world war by attacking Russia and Crimea. Some observers see the behaviour of the regime in Kiev since their defeat has become apparent as an attempt to drag the whole world directly into the conflict. A stop sign must be put up immediately. But how and by whom?
In Germany, too, the media are slowly admitting what ex-General Kujat, for example, has been predicting for months: Ukraine has no chance on the battlefield; arms deliveries will only prolong the war and the deaths.
Ukrainian burial ground near Bachmut
The counter-offensive was praised with great enthusiasm in the leading medium Deutschlandfunk, among others. Confidence in Western weapons as the bringer of victory was built up. Even the slightest hesitation on the part of the German government in approving further arms deliveries was sharply denounced. Politicians who demanded more weapons were given the big stage.
This campaign was combined with reports that Putin would soon die of his illnesses or be overthrown and that Russia was militarily incapable anyway. In this way, Western certainty of victory and unconcern were built up.
Now these voices are becoming quieter and quieter. According to opinions mainly of former US officers and scientists, who in my opinion report realistically and also have the necessary information networking to do so, Ukraine (more clearly the part of the country ruled by the regime in Kiev) has long since lost this war. They have no chance of taking back the territories controlled by Russia and eastern Ukrainians. I believe that this assessment is correct. The whole counter-offensive was nothing but a desperate attempt to lend credibility to their own narrative that the war was winnable: but it has only led to tens of thousands more deaths.
Russia's government wanted nothing more before the invasion than for the West to give in writing what it had promised Russia verbally:
No expansion of NATO beyond Germany, above all no inclusion of Ukraine and Georgia in the alliance (after the many wars against Yugoslavia, Libya, Iraq, Afghanistan, Syria, which violated international law, this word is justified in my opinion) - neutrality of both countries. Withdrawal of the US missiles threatening Russia's existence from Poland and Romania, resolution of the conflict between Western and Eastern Ukraine by peaceful means.
The USA and NATO believed that Russia was so weak that they did not have to respond at all. Russia would swallow this again, like the gradual takeover of the Russian sphere of influence after the withdrawal of the Red Army by NATO in Eastern Europe. And if they wanted to prevent it militarily, they have no chance against the Ukrainian army anyway, which we have been upgrading since 2014, and they could then be isolated worldwide as the aggressor.
In my opinion, Russia will no longer vacate the territories it has occupied: also because it would be feared that a massacre of the Russian-speaking population by West Ukrainian nationalists would then be imminent.
Any further attempts to conquer the territories will only lead to more death and destruction.
What is to be done: prevent even more people from dying senselessly,
prevent more Ukraine from being destroyed or contaminated with uranium, prevent more public funds from being wasted on armament.
A "business as usual" will drag Ukraine, Europe and the world deeper and deeper into the quagmire and can escalate into a world war at any time. Then suddenly not only the lives of Russians and Ukrainians could be endangered, but also the lives of the hotheads in the West and in Germany and their families.
Ukraine could provoke an escalation to world war by attacking Russia and Crimea. Some observers see Ukraine's behaviour since its defeat has become apparent as an attempt to drag the whole world directly into the conflict. A stop sign must be put up immediately. But how and by whom?
The West must now learn that it was mistaken about the balance of power and adapt its policy accordingly: It can no longer be sure that it can simply and ruthlessly assert its interests worldwide. But this realisation will not take hold by itself. New and courageous people must assert this realisation and they must be formed: we propose the formation of non-party constituency peace teams for this purpose.
The best and most realistic peace proposal I have read is that of Indonesia: It should be realised: Ceasefire, withdrawal of troops on both sides of the front by 15 kilometres, UN observers in the demilitarised zone, later referendums in the Russian-controlled areas on which state the people want to belong to.
Moreover, there should now be a first serious attempt to implement the Charter of Paris and enforce it against the US regime: Building a common European house with Russia in which the security interests of all states are safeguarded.
Now the argument could come: Yes, but can we simply accept Russia's breach of international law? If the West would come to terms with its own and, for example, withdraw its units operating in Syria in violation of international law, the criticism would be more credible: the world has also accepted all the Western crimes up to now: Why treat Russia differently. If we demand that all conflicts be solved peacefully and that the sovereignty of other states be respected, we can start by doing that instead of always demanding it of others.
What do you think about this, my peace policy impulse? I am willing to learn more.
Wolfgang Lieberknecht
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